Concepts
Confidence scores explained
A tissue price is only as good as the data behind it. The Odds Father model tags every runner with an A/B/C confidence band and a numeric percentage so you know which prices to act on with conviction and which to treat as guidance only.
The bands
- Band A (80%+) — full data, reliable form, big-field sample. Stake confidently.
- Band B (60–80%) — solid data, minor gaps. Stake with some caution.
- Band C (below 60%) — thin data, unraced juveniles, atypical conditions. Treat as indicative only.
What reduces confidence
- Unraced horses with no form lines
- Small fields (4–5 runners) where pricing has thin information
- First-time-out two-year-olds in maidens
- Atypical going (e.g. first heavy-ground race of the season)
- Long layoffs (over 200 days off the track)
- Course/distance changes with no prior data
Race-level confidence warning
Even a single low-confidence runner can compromise the whole race — pace projections rely on the full field. That's why the scanner shows a race-level warning banner: "One or more runners in this race have insufficient data for reliable tissue pricing. All prices in this race should be treated as indicative only."
How to use confidence in your staking
- Band A — full Kelly / target stake
- Band B — half stake
- Band C — paper bet only, or skip
- Race-level warning — skip the whole race unless you have strong outside knowledge
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