How to read tissue prices
A tissue is a decimal price that represents a horse's true chance of winning a race, without bookmaker margin. Knowing how to read tissues — and compare them to the market — is the foundation of value betting.
Tissue price → implied probability
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds.
- Tissue
2.00→ 50% true chance - Tissue
4.00→ 25% - Tissue
8.00→ 12.5% - Tissue
20.00→ 5%
Reading a tissue row
An Odds Father scanner row looks like this:
- Horse: Saxon Warrior
- Tissue:
5.00 - Best book:
7.50(Sky Bet) - Edge: +50%
- Confidence: A · 91%
Translation: the model believes Saxon Warrior has a 20% chance. Sky Bet is paying as if it has a 13.3% chance. The bookmaker is overpaying by 50% — a strong value bet.
What edge % actually means
Edge = (Best price / Tissue) − 1, expressed as a percentage. A +50% edge does not mean you'll win 50% of the time. It means your expected return per pound staked is +50% over the long run.
The thresholds we recommend
- Below 5% — ignore. Within model noise.
- 5–10% — playable for high-confidence (band A) runners
- 10–25% — solid value, the sweet spot for staking
- 25%+ — strong overlay, but check the confidence band
- 50%+ — usually means a data issue; verify before staking
Reading confidence
Confidence bands (A high / B medium / C low) tell you how trustworthy the tissue is. Big handicaps with full form data run band A. Maiden juveniles or thin-data races run band C — treat those prices as indicative only.
Get today's value selections
Tissue prices, OF Score™ ratings and back-to-lay exits — delivered to Telegram by 10am.
Start 7-day trial