Horse racing tissue prices explained

What is a tissue price?

A tissue is the price a trader would offer on a horse if they had to bet at one number with no margin. It's the model's true probability converted into decimal odds. If a horse has a 20% chance of winning, the tissue is1 / 0.20 = 5.00 (4/1).

Tissue vs bookmaker odds

Bookmakers price runners plus a margin — typically 110%–120% across a race book. A tissue is a clean 100% book. When a bookmaker's price drifts above the tissue, you've found value: you're being paid more than the true risk warrants.

How tissues are built

• Form ratings — RPR, Topspeed and our internal model
• Class and weight — handicap marks vs class par
• Going, distance, course — how the conditions reshape chances
• Trainer / jockey form — recent strike rate adjustments
• Pace — projected race shape and ground bias

Reading a tissue line

Example for a 6-runner race:

• Horse A — tissue 3.00 · best book 3.75 — +25% edge
• Horse B — tissue 4.50 · best book 4.20 — no value
• Horse C — tissue 8.00 · best book 11.00 — +37.5% edge

You only bet Horses A and C — the runners where the book is paying more than fair value.

Confidence bands

Not every tissue is equal. Small fields with thin data carry more model error. The Odds Father scanner tags every runner with a confidence band (A / B / C) and a percentage so you know which prices to trust and which races to treat as indicative only.

Using tissues in practice

1. Open the scanner first thing in the morning while bookies are still padding their books.
2. Filter by minimum edge (10%+) and confidence band A or B.
3. Take the early price — that's when the gap between bookie and tissue is widest.
4. Lay back on Betfair as the price shortens (back-to-lay) or let it run.