Back-to-lay strategy guide

Scenario 1 — the easy steamer

Back at 8.00 in the morning, price shortens to 5.00 by the off.

• Back £100 at 8.00 → potential return £800
• Lay £160 at 5.00 → liability £640
• Win: bookie pays £800; exchange loses £640 → +£160 minus 5% commission ≈ +£152
• Lose: bookie loses £100; exchange wins £160 → +£60 minus commission ≈ +£57

Greened across all outcomes — about £60 locked in either way (if you green evenly) or +£152/+£57 if you let the win-side run.

Scenario 2 — the slow mover

Back at 8.00, price only shortens to 7.00 by 5 minutes to off.

• Lay £114 at 7.00 → liability £684
• Win: +£800 − £684 = +£116
• Lose: −£100 + £114 = +£14

Smaller locked-in profit but still profitable on both outcomes.

Scenario 3 — the drifter

Back at 8.00, price drifts to 11.00 (you can't lay at profit).

Options:

1. Let it run at BSP — if your selections beat BSP long-term, this is fine
2. Trade out for a small loss — lay at 11.00 for a controlled exit
3. Stay green by stake reduction — only if you have a strong opinion on the drift

Drifters are the cost of B2L. As long as your overall selections beat BSP, drifters average out.

Scenario 4 — the blowout

Big horse, market move, price collapses to 2.50 from 8.00 in 20 minutes.

• Lay £320 at 2.50 → liability £480
• Win: +£800 − £480 = +£320
• Lose: −£100 + £320 = +£220

Lock huge profit regardless of result — these are the runs that make a B2L season.

Execution rules

• Always back early — by 11am, ideally morning prices
• Lay 5–10 minutes from the off when liquidity peaks
• Use Betfair's cash-out or the greening calculator
• Don't manually trade in-play unless you have a strong edge
• Track every B2L pair — your "morning back" and "lay" prices should be logged